The Variation of Sea Surface Temperature in 1976 and 1977 2. The Simulation With Mixed Layer Models

In connection with a study of the extreme weather events over the North American continent in '" January, 1977, analyses were performed to investigate characteristic properties of spatial and temporal variation of sea surface temperature for the years of 1976 and 1977, using world distribution of sea surface temperature described in the accompanying paper, part 1. The time evolution of ocean temperature patterns for these years are displayed by latitudinal distribution diagrams of sea surface temperature, and longitude-time (Hovmoller) diagrams. Gill-Turner's integral model and Mellor-Durbin's turbulence closure model of the mixed layer were applied to calculate the sea surface temperature anomaly in the northern hemisphere, using realisitic atmospheric forcing. Increase of time variability of the external forcing leads to an appreciably improved simulation of the sea surface temperature anomaly fields. Both models gave reasonable predictions for about 5 months in winter time, if the realistic external forcings were specified.